By JM.MUSOMA
Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will beat President Ruto without the support of ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga in 2027 if status quo remains. Kenyans are tired of corrupt charlatans with a chest thumping bravado and now want a humble President with a sobber mind and huge experience in public service to fix the nation.
With the support of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and a host of seasoned political leaders like Uhuru, Wamalwa, Natembeya, Matiang’i and Karua, the Wiper boss will have the numbers to win elections in first round. With the looming Mt. Kenya Itugati rebelion, Gen-Z revolution, failed SHA-SHIF , House levy taxation, crippled health facilities, discriminative university funding model, mutilated payslips and fallout with religious leaders Ruto has very minimal chances of re-election.
The impeachment of Riggy-G, formation of a broad-based government with Raila and the deadly abduction of government critics is fodder for opposition and a “Kibaki Moment” inevitable. Just like the historic 2002 elections, opposition leaders have now ganged together with the support of a very disappointed electorate that cares more about who should not be President than who shall become President.
Analysts say that politics is a game of numbers and all that matters in Kenya is what you bring on the table. Am talking of the numerical strength of the vote block you control and the communities that deem you friendly or hostile. In this peaceful country South of river Nile and north of Limpopo you will be judged by where you come from not what you stand for.
People who can’t bring you down will more than often label you as illiterate coz they consider themselves more learned or a coward coz they consider themselves brave but you might have a good following of many illiterates and cowards than there are brave and learned. Ruto fears the friendship of Kalonzo and Rigathi more than Raila, that’s why he will call them tribal after Kambas joined Gema but justify the Kalenjin Unity that made a man from the minority Nandi like him or Turgen like Moi a President.
Both Ruto and Raila were Presidential candidates supported by running mates from Mt. Kenya. Ruto got 47% of his 7.2 Million votes while Raila got 1.2 Milion votes from the vote rich mountain. The Rigathi controlled political basket fell with both Ruto and Raila after their UDA and ODM Parties partnered to remove him from government and share power. Only Kalonzo’s Wiper Party and a few UDA Parliamentarians stood with the son of Mau-Mau in his hour of need.
With a control of over 2 Million Kamba votes that went for Raila in 2022, Kalonzo is the most likely Presidential Candidate of the People’s opposition coz Rigathi may not be fit to occupy public office. Word has it that the self-claimed “Truthful Man” will not allow the opposition to pick a President or Deputy President candidate from Mt. Kenya coz by so doing he will have succeeded himself.
The second Deputy President of Kenya will probably be rooting for Matiang’i the Jubilee Party Presidential candidate to deputise Musyoka, have a Prime Minister from Mt. Kenya and House Speakers from Western and Coast or South Rift. This is a game of cards and the King maker is greater than the King.
The former powerful CS in Uhuru’s government has a massive youthful following especially from the Gen-Z and also enjoys the support of his South Nyanza 0.5 Million votes that went to Raila in 2022. To win elections in Kenya you need to be a bully, have money, substantial influence and and a good strategy. The no-nonsense Supper Interior CS brings in the much needed iron fist that the soft spoken Kalonzo requires to navigate mulky political walters.
This duo complements each other, they are both men of integrity with a known reputation beyond reproach and have a lot of experience in public service. If they are supported with funds and a strategic campaign team, Ruto will cede defeat before election results are announced.
Raila will lose the 2 Million Ukambani votes, 1.2M Mt. Kenya votes, the 0.5 South votes and 1 Million Gen-Zs who voted for him to Kalonzo if he supports Ruto. On his side Ruto has already lost 3.3Million Mt. Kenya votes and an approximate 3 Million Gen-Z who voted for him in 2022. To add salt on the wound there are over 5 Million Gen-Z who are seeking to register as voters to send this corrupt regime home in the morning.
With this 16 Million low lying votes Kalonzo doesn’t need the support of Raila to beat Ruto and become the 6th President of Kenya.
(The writer is Musoma JM, a publicist, thinker and human right activist from Makueni)
